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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

However this year's field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

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